This article may contain personal views and opinion from the author.
Apple's first foldable iPhone will probably be a hit, but it remains to be seen how big. | Image by FrontPageTech
Even though it's still only March, a lot of well-connected tech industry analysts and leakers claim to know exactly what Apple is preparing in terms of iPhone releases for the rest of the year. That wouldn't typically raise many eyebrows, as the company always unveils (more or less) the same products every fall, but apparently, September 2026 will mark a radical change for the world's most successful handset family.
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Instead of getting a sequel to the "vanilla" iPhone 17 alongside a state-of-the-art iPhone 18 Pro duo, hardcore Apple fans will reportedly finally see the tech giant's Galaxy Z Fold rival announced this year. The iPhone Fold (or iPhone Ultra) has likely been in the works (at least in a conceptual form) for the better part of a decade, and although the first-of-a-kind device is expected to enter production soon, its commercial debut might not take place until December.
Too little, too late?
Look, I'm obviously not going to stand here and act like I know more about the mobile industry and foldable market segment than the experts over at Counterpoint Research. But I strongly believe the analytics firm's 2026 sales projections for said segment from a couple of weeks back were... optimistic, at least if Mark Gurman's latest "iPhone Fold" predictions are to be trusted.
This is how the first-gen iPhone Fold is expected to look. | Image by Sonny Dickson
According to Gurman, Apple's rookie foldable effort is "no doubt" planned for a later release compared to the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max, both of which are naturally expected to go on sale around the world in September. While the Bloomberg journalist and legendary Apple fortune teller stopped short of trying to guess exactly when the foldable iPhone could start shipping to its earliest adopters, December was mentioned as a probable release timeframe by a different pundit not long ago.
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Now, we all know how enthusiastic Apple's fanbase can get about all-new products (especially category-defining ones), but there's simply no mathematical way for the company to seize 28 percent of the whole year's global foldable sales in less than a month. 5 percent? Definitely. 10 percent? Maybe. 20 percent? Unlikely. 28 percent? Impossible!
What about 2027?
Because I'm really not trying to be a hater without rhyme or reason, I'll admit it's possible that Apple will become the world's top foldable vendor next year. But I don't think that's a given either, and I believe the 20 million unit sales target rumored of late might be a tad ambitious (to say the least).
The iPhone Fold is expected to sport a primary screen with an approximate size of 7.8 inches. | Image by FrontPageTech
Like Mark Gurman, I have no doubt that the first-gen foldable iPhone will generate great excitement among Apple fans, but I have a few reasons to expect the company to have trouble converting that theoretical or verbal enthusiasm into actual sales of tens of millions of copies (at least in the short term).
Number one, it's being reported that the device may need to make some build quality compromises in order to keep its price point (relatively) low. That's something Samsung or Motorola fans might be able to live with (no offense), but when it comes to Apple products, everyone expects perfection from a durability standpoint.
Do you think the iPhone Fold will be a hit?
Secondly, the iPhone Fold doesn't strike me as a truly groundbreaking or even a very original device based on the latest rumors and leaks, looking kind of similar to Google's Pixel 10 Pro Fold, not to mention Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8 Wide, which is expected to come out this summer. I know you're going to tell me that won't matter for Apple's most devoted fans, but it might be pretty important for existing foldable users who are unlikely to find a solid reason to make the switch to such a familiar-looking iPhone "Ultra."
Not every new Apple product has to strike gold right off the bat
This is a key thing to remember when the iPhone Fold will be released and its sales figures will start to come out. The device doesn't need to ship 20 million units in a month or two to be considered a (moderate) hit.
The iPhone Fold could be an iPhone Air-type hit rather than an iPhone 17 Pro Max-grade blockbuster. | Image by PhoneArena
Just look at the iPhone Air. Is that a flop? I don't think so. Is it the mobile industry's biggest hit of 2025 (or 2026 so far)? Absolutely not. Will the second edition be even more successful? Probably, especially if it bridges the gap to its Pro-branded brothers further (maybe with a dual or triple rear-facing camera system) while keeping its predecessor's price tag unchanged.
Similarly, I believe it's far more realistic to expect the first-gen iPhone Fold to be a moderate hit and then its inevitable sequel to crush Samsung's foldables with a more refined, durable, and perhaps even more original design. After all, we have to remember that the foldable market as a whole hasn't grown anywhere near the pace predicted by research firms and industry analysts these last few years, so it's clearly unfair to now move all those excessive expectations to a... rookie.
The important thing is for this year's foldable iPhone to not hit any other snags and be delayed to next year and for its sales numbers to at least exceed the initial popularity of products like the Vision Pro, HomePod, and AirPods Max (which really shouldn't be that difficult).
Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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